Morning Market Wrap by broker – 28 Feb 13

Singapore
* UOB reported 4Q N.P of S$696m (+25% YoY) ahead of UBS and consensus estimates on better trading/fee income. NIMs fall a worse than exp 8bpts QoQ (vs peers down 5bpts) to 1.76% and some 19bpts YoY which should result in little to no interest income growth in 1Q13.

* JM to report results on 8th Mar. Expect underlying FY12 N.P of US$1,527m (+2% YoY) and 6% profit growth for H212. Look out for capital allocation plans, given record-high net cash levels.

* OUE reported to be planning to IPO a hospitality focused REIT in 3Q (BBG)

* MGCCT prices its IPO at 93cts/shr with media reports suggesting insti tranche multiple times covered. Will commence trading on 7th Mar

* CIT to report 4Q results prior to market open. FY net 678.3m, est 599m.

* NOBL to report 4Q results after market

* GGR & UOL to report FY12 results after close.

Morning Wrap by Decoder – 28 Feb 13

• MS PT: Asia Pack kicks off today 1.84x BTS with outflow in all markets. After seeing large country rotation yesterday (+KR/HK, -AUS/SG), they are seeing a heavy pad to sell today. With the month end/rebalancing, would expect to see the usual skew of liquidity and spike in volatility.
• BNP PT: 2 ways flow with a bullish tilt, buying Jap cons disc while selling HK staples.
• GS: Regional 1.1x BTB with HK to start 2x BTS however, notional was down 40% Vs recent avg.

• TW Closed for “Peace Day”.
• MSCI Rebalancing today @ close today. Please refer Citi’s spreadsheet for the affected names.
• China kicks off pilot prog that will see nearly a dozen companies expanding their securities lending business. They are allowed to borrow from the state owned intermediary China Securities Finance Corp to relend the shares to their clients for short selling. Brokerages should react +vely today.
• US stocks flew yesterday, with the index rising to their best trading day since Jan 2, fueled by +ve comments from Bernanke and a big pleasant surprise from the pending home sales #s in Jan. The Fed chief said that he is supportive of the central bank’s stimulus policy and that CB has the necessary tools to reduce stimulus and avoid a spike in inflation but the ultra-low-rate policy is still needed “to help support housing/automobile and other part of the economy”. Home sales in Jan +4.5% Vs estimate of +1%, signaling a recovery in the beaten property market. Bernanke’s comments will set the trend for Asian markets today, with KR/JP both adding 1%/1.8% at the moment and China/HK are likely to follow suit on opening.

Swiber Results – 27 Feb 13 (GOOD!)

* NP surges 48.3% to US$62.5m on robust revenue.

* Strong Revenue growth of 45.5% to US$952.2m driven by Latin America/SEA Region

* Secures sizable contracts, bringing order book to approx US$1.35bn as of Feb 2013

* Gross profit margin @ healthy lvl of 15.9%

Market Summary by Broker – 27 Feb 13

SINGAPORE

US stks ended higher after monday’s selldown driven by encouraging housing data while Bernanke defended Fed’s monetary policy. Dow +116p, ND +13.4p, SPX +9.1p, recovering almost half of monday’s weakness. FSSTI traded lower to close at the lower bollinger bands. Index should bounce off the 3250 lower bollinger levels and condolidate btw the 3250-3300 levels. Breaking the lower bollinger bands could send index back to the 3200 levels.

* Kepcorp (KEP.sp): wins 2 FPSO related contracts worth S$200m. We keep our order target of S$5.5b for 2013 with orders coming frm semi-subs, FPSO conversions & harsh environment jackups.

* Parkson Retail (PRA.sp): Post-roadshow~ investor meetings with mgmt affirmed Jan/Feb’s SSSG trends which have been running ahead of 2Q. Msia seeing double digit growth driven by pre-elections handouts & low base.

* Singtel (ST.sp): denies it has been formally charged by India’s CBI for allegedly creating illegal long distance service networks dated back to 2004.

* Super (SUPER.sp): trading halted pending release of results. Seperately, co has injected another US$2m into its China subsidiary to fund expansion of new packaging plant.

* Swiber (SWIB.sp): Trading halted pending release of results

* GLobal Log (GLP.sp): leases 15.6k sqm of space to Cardinal Health.

* Mapletree GC (MAGIC.sp): $0.93 pricing (@ high end) offers 6% yield vs 5% for retail & 4.8% for office reits. Co expected to debut on 7th March.

* Fragrance (FRAG.sp): emerges as top bidder for 15yr leasehold F&B site in Punggol @ $11.4m ($3789 psm GFA).

* Boustead (BOCS.sp): clinches S$30m worth of contract in Taiwan to build a condensate polishing plant to produce high grade boiler feedwater for thermal power plant in Taiwan.

* GLobal Premium (GPHL.sp): seeks share buyback mandate.

* KS Energy (KST.sp) / Sinwa (SINWA.sp): 50-50 JV will dispose of their liftboat for US$42m to Hercules oilfield svs.

MALAYSIA

Expect KLCI to have a firmer start following DJ’s performance as stks climbed on better housing and consumer confidence data. With a slew of results to digest, spotlight will be stks which beat consensus’ estimates ie AIRA, IHH, CAB and SUCB. Auto sector is likely to attract interest as the govt is expected to announce its long-awaited plan to cut the excise duty (as high as 105%) gradually over the next 5 years on automobiles, in a move to liberalise the industry. Lookout for SIME 2Q’s results after 12:30pm.

* HAP ~ To sell shrs in Lei Shing Hong (Singapore) for equivalent of RM118m.

* BC ~ its auto subsidiary is looking to list this year. BAuto will provide a transparent valuation benchmark for the Mazda automotive biz of Berjaya Corp.
* FGV ~ posted a 39% drop in net profit for FY12, is evaluating at least 12 potential acquisitions that could help boost future earnings. It is also implementing several efficiency measure to counter lower CPO prices.

* MAXIS ~ seeks approval fr regulators to roll out 4G LTE services over the air, expected at the end of 2Q or 3Q this year.

* MAS ~ which is in the midst of fund-raising, expects its first quarter financial results due March 31 2013 to be better than last year.

Market Wrap by Decoder – 27 Feb 13

• Govt Funds in TW – 8 major state owned brokers turn to net buyer yesterday after net selling for 15 days, (+Wintel/WPG/FETone/HonHai/TSMC). Economic Times report that the Labor Pension will outsource another USD 2bn in March.
• China Securities regulator is on track to open stock investment to the country’s housing provident funds (US 337bn) as of end 2011. Apparently, these funds are largely idle as bank deposits/govt bonds and their yield can hardly fight inflation.
• Stoxx 50 plunged 3.4% after the final results of the Italian election.
• Italian 10 yrs yield surged 41 bps to 4.9% (3 months high) while the CDS on the Italian bonds were up 16% or 41 bps.
• With all the +ve macro data/Ben Bernanke’s commentary as the backdrop, the US markets shrugged off the bear markets in the Eurozone and ended up closing near intraday high. Those includes BTE consumer confidence #s, higher home prices and better home sales. Bernanke spoke during the semiannual meeting, re-emphasized that the Fed will continue with its $85bn/month bond buying as the benefit of asset purchase are clear but stressed that he is unable to bear the entire burden of spurring the economic recovery and urged lawmakers to find alternatives before 1st March. He also mentioned that if there is a need to write down Italian debts, that alone wouldn’t inflict serious damage on US FIs. Although we have seen a recovery in the US markets last night, we don’t expect to see a flow over into the Asian markets this morning, plagued by the overhang of Sequestration/Italian election. Probably, we will observe another day of knee jerk reaction @ opening, followed by a gradual sell off.

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust priced @ 0.93/share

By Joyce Koh and Fox Hu
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Mapletree Investments Pte plans to sell shares in an initial public offering of a real estate investment trust at the top end of a marketed range, raising about S$1.6 billion ($1.3 billion), said three people with knowledge of the matter.
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, backed by assets in Hong Kong and China, will be priced at 93 Singapore cents a share, the people said, asking not to be named as the process is private. The shares had been offered at 88 cents to 93 cents.
The REIT will include the Festival Walk shopping mall in Hong Kong and Gateway Plaza office complex in Beijing, a sales document for the IPO shows. The sale will be the biggest IPO of a real estate investment trust in Singapore, surpassing three earlier offerings by Mapletree, a real estate unit of Temasek Holdings Pte.
Mapletree Investments officials couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
Gross proceeds from the offering could be as much as S$1.68 billion if a so-called over-allotment option is exercised, according to the company’s share-sale prospectus. Mapletree Investments will own 32 percent to 35 percent of the REIT after the sale.
About 953 million of the 1.7 billion shares will be sold to so-called cornerstone investors, including AIA Group Ltd. and Morgan Stanley, according to a prospectus filed with the city- state’s central bank on Feb. 15. Also among cornerstone investors are Henderson Global Investors Ltd., Myriad Asset Management Ltd. and Norges Bank Investment Management, which runs Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the sales document shows.
Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and HSBC Holdings Plc are managing the offer.

Morning Wrap by broker – 26 Feb 13

CPO names in focus: CPO fut fell the most in 3 mths -2.53%DoD as fcst for a record U.S. soybean crop next yr deepened concern that global cooking oil supplies may increase & a tax on exports will curb demand for M’sian supplies. Dorab Mistry warned CPO probably will fall this yr after Asian producers boosted acreage & global oilseed supplies rose.

*Banks in focus; COE to drop? Govt re-introduces restrictions on car loans given by banks. From today onwards, someone buying a car with OMV S$20k can only borrow up to 50% of purchase price. Car loans also capped at 5 yrs. A new tiered ARF structure are also introduced for cars & taxis.

*Wilmar(WIL) says China soybean crushers are draining inventories as they expect prices to drop on Brazil’s record harvest, even as China struggles with shipping delays.

*(GLP) in placement: GIC selling 595.7m shs, raised S$1.55b @ S$2.60 apiece, @ low-range & a 5.5% discount to last close with stake around 13% of total shs outstanding; JPMorgan sole book-runner. GIC reassures that the sale of stake is part of a regular rebalancing & remains confident of GLP’s long-term prospect & will remain a substantial long-term shareholder. Separately, GLP signs 19,000 sqm of leases in Xi’an, China.

*(DBS): Indo’s Finance Minister says RECIPROCITY was an important consideration for the Govt as it weighed the merits of a long delayed purchase of Bank Danamon(BDMN.IJ) by DBS; Deal has been delayed for almost a yr now.

*Mapletree Greater China Comm Trust(MAGIC) priced its IPO at top range of S$0.93/shr raising ~ US$1.3b. Risk appetite rising?

Earnings:

*(OUE) 4Q12 NP of S$21.65m & EPS of S$0.024 came 39% below our fcst due to a S$40.6m fair value loss @ One Raffles Place vs S$21.3m fair value gain in 2011. We suspect that the independent valuation of ~S$2390/sq ft was probably too bullish last yr. Other key items were above fcst. Office valuation +1%YoY for OUE bay front & remained flat YoY for 6 Shenton Way (Twr 1 & 2). Declared final div of S$0.08 (S$0.03 final div + S$0.05 special), translating into FY12 div of S$0.11/shr.

*ARA Asset Mgmt(ARA) 4Q12 NP of S$17.69m +33%YoY while total REV +39%YoY to S$36.96m; FY12 NP +7%YoY while REV +9%YoY. Final cash div remained at 2.7cps, unchanged from a yr ago.

Earnings due today: SembIndus(SCI) 4Q12 @ 5.15PM
(MIDAS) 4Q12