Morning Wrap by Broker – 24 Oct 13

Baltic Dry: 1786 -3.30% Gold: 1332.76 +0.19% Palm Crude: 2482 +1.10%
VIX: 13.42 +0.68% WTI Crude: 97.10 +0.25% USD/SGD: 1.2389 +0.06%
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*Fraser & Neave(FNN): billionaire Charoen may pare his majority stake in FNN to keep the stock listed & allow it to spin off property assets. -WSJ *Keppel Land(KPLD) to buy China site for RMB241m, building 350 homes on land.

*SingTel(ST) scraps mobile app “LoopMe” for reasons that are unclear; seems that 2 firms that worked on the app were involved in licensing dispute.

*Courts Asia(COURTS) to start construction of Indonesia megastore; operational by 2014.

*China Minzhong(MINZ) gets approval to extend halt by another 2 wks till Nov 6 so as to enable INDF.IJ to restore the public float of the Co.’s shs. If float not restored, co. will need to convert TRADING HALT to a SUSPENSION.

*Tuan Sing Hldgs(TSH) unit “Dillenia Land” drawn into Gilstead Court row over a collective sale; 3 members of sale committee claim breach of contract over an offer.

Earnings results:
*CapitaMalls Trust(CT): 3Q DPU +5.8% to 2.56cts on back of higher contributions from revamped malls & higher rental from new/renewed leases. Distributable income +9.7% to S$88.8m. Overall occupancy rate improved QoQ to 99.5% from 99.1%. Mgt remains cautiously optimistic on outlook.

*(AAREIT): 2Q DPU +10% to 2.75cts. Distributable income +29% to S$14.5m due to a new source of rental income and higher rental rates. Mgt believes that AAREIT will be able to cope if interest rates increase as its debt refinancing is due only in Oct 2015.
*CacheLog(CACHE): 3Q DPU -0.8% to 2.126cts. Distributable income +9.6% to S$16.5m. Lower DPU was due to the issuance of 70m private placement units in Mar 2013.

*FrasersComm(FCOT): 4Q DPU +18.9% to 2.08cts. Distributable income +20% to S$13.7m due to lower finance costs, & lower payout to holders of its Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units.

*Sheng Siong(SSG) 3Q13 #s: NP S$10.6m +7.8%YoY mainly on higher REV (+4.8%YoY on higher new store sales offset by lower comparable SSS) & better gross profit margin.

Market Wrap by Decoder – 24 Oct 13

• HK/CN – Property tax comes closer to more homes. Increasing the supply of public housing and the expansion of the property tax to more cities will probably top Chinese leaders’ list of measures to contain the rebound in home prices. BJ’s housing administration said on Wed that the capital city will allocate land by the end of this year to build 20k low-cost homes, with plans to earmark more sites next year for 50k similar residences. The prices of these units will be 30% lower than those surrounding units. Similar programs are expected to be launch in other cities such as SH/Shenzhen/Guangzhou/Tianjin where some double digit gains in home prices were seen in Sept. Property tax – which now applies to only luxury units in SH/Chongqing, is likely to be extended to other cities as well. – http://www.ejinsight.com
• China Flash PMI due 9.45am HKT (cons 50.4 Vs last 50.2).

• Overnight markets closed lower, falling from high due to weaker corporate earnings from Caterpillar as well as bad business loans data from China. Caterpillar was down 6.1% due to earning misses/outlook revision while SHCOMP plunged earlier in the day after China reported write offs in bad bank loans and a spike in the short term money rate send investors fleeing from equities. The energy sector was down 1.4% as crude grinded lower, below $97 mark. Treasuries locked in modest gains as the 10 yrs yield dipped 2.5 bps to 2.49%. Macro data like the mortgage applications added on to the selloff as the # declined as home refinancing fell for the first time since early Sept.

Summary of the Deal – UMW O&G 24 Oct 13

UMW Oil & Gas, UMWOG.MK, listing on Friday next week, 1st Nov. Mkt cap US$1.9m. Raising RM2.36b / US$745m. Priced @ RM2.80, top end.

Key Drivers for UMWOG:

* Currently, there are 17 jackup rigs operating in Malaysia. Only 2 of which are locally owned (both by UMWOG). 12 of the 17 rig contracts expire over the next 15 months. In prime position to benefit from Petronas’ growing preference for local rig owners.

* Co to benefit from Petronas RM300b capex 2011-2015

* Regionally, growth potential in Vietnam where it already has a rig working for Hoang Long. Other aggressive growth mkts: Indonesia, Philippines & Myanmar.

* Assets: UMWOG’s young jackup fleet key for marketability. Co’s fleet averages 2yrs old vs industry average >15yrs old.

* Rates: Jackup date rates to stay elevated. Shortage in market for quality, younger rigs which UMWOG has supply.

* Orderbook: Stands at RM1.47b, expected to increase securing contract for ‘Naga 5’ mid 2014.

* 60% allocated to purchase drilling rigs + hydraulic workover units.

* UMW Holdings, UMWH.mk, will remain parent co with 61% stake

* IPO said to be 55x oversubscribed by institutional & 23x over by retail.

* Up to 17 cornerstones = 61% of the institutional tranche.