November 18, 2013
by marketdecoder
• HK/CN – 2 child policy faces early test from families. China’s relaxed family planning policy will keep its population stable and support the economy but it faces hurdles from the very people that the policy is intended to benefit. Guo Zhenwei, a family planning official from National Health and Family Planning Commission, said that the population should be kept at about 1.5bil to ensure the country’s economic and social development. The fertility rate should be about 1.8, up from about 1.5 to 1.6. However, urban families may not like the idea especially when the cost of living is hitting the roof in the cities. Young people are struggling to find jobs to make ends meet and the spiraling property prices are not making things any better. Under the new policy, couples are allowed to have a 2nd child if either of them is an only child – most influential measure in sweeping reforms announced by the Communist Party. – http://www.ejinsight.com
• MY – 3Q GDP @ 5% YoY Vs 4.4% in 2Q, above expectation while 3Q current account surplus of RM9.8b was in line.
• Overnight markets extended gains as macros disappoint (counter intuitive) and Yellen’s testimony on the Fed’s commitment to policy accommodation until the economy improves were seen. Empire mfging -2.21% Vs +5% cons/Import price drop MoM as well as YoY/Capacity utilization 78.1% Vs 78.3% cons. Sector wise, Energy/Mat/Utilities/Financials outperformed while Consumer lagged. Bonds were flat with the 10 yrs yield unchanged @ 2.7%. China’s details on the meeting can be seen very positive, with overnight ADR adding 2-3%. The relaxation of the 1 child policy/reform plans SOE, land, government are taken very positively and should propel SHcomp/HSI to higher levels even after last Friday’s 1.7% surged. (find attached note from Citi on their views on the reforms)
Market Decoder 
Market Wrap by Decoder – 18 Nov 13
November 18, 2013 by marketdecoder Leave a comment
• HK/CN – 2 child policy faces early test from families. China’s relaxed family planning policy will keep its population stable and support the economy but it faces hurdles from the very people that the policy is intended to benefit. Guo Zhenwei, a family planning official from National Health and Family Planning Commission, said that the population should be kept at about 1.5bil to ensure the country’s economic and social development. The fertility rate should be about 1.8, up from about 1.5 to 1.6. However, urban families may not like the idea especially when the cost of living is hitting the roof in the cities. Young people are struggling to find jobs to make ends meet and the spiraling property prices are not making things any better. Under the new policy, couples are allowed to have a 2nd child if either of them is an only child – most influential measure in sweeping reforms announced by the Communist Party. – http://www.ejinsight.com
• MY – 3Q GDP @ 5% YoY Vs 4.4% in 2Q, above expectation while 3Q current account surplus of RM9.8b was in line.
• Overnight markets extended gains as macros disappoint (counter intuitive) and Yellen’s testimony on the Fed’s commitment to policy accommodation until the economy improves were seen. Empire mfging -2.21% Vs +5% cons/Import price drop MoM as well as YoY/Capacity utilization 78.1% Vs 78.3% cons. Sector wise, Energy/Mat/Utilities/Financials outperformed while Consumer lagged. Bonds were flat with the 10 yrs yield unchanged @ 2.7%. China’s details on the meeting can be seen very positive, with overnight ADR adding 2-3%. The relaxation of the 1 child policy/reform plans SOE, land, government are taken very positively and should propel SHcomp/HSI to higher levels even after last Friday’s 1.7% surged. (find attached note from Citi on their views on the reforms)
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